[Click above and at right on PRINT THIS ARTICLE to reformat today’s column in a more readable form.]
Utilizing available data, I’ve compiled the following chart that compares votes cast by Catholics in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
|
2004 Generic Catholic Vote |
2008 Generic Catholic Vote |
Catholic
Vote
|
||||
|
State
|
% of Catholics |
Bush %
|
Kerry %
|
McCain %
|
Obama %
|
McCain 2008 vs. Bush 2004
|
|
Alabama
|
8
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Alaska
|
17
|
67
|
31
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Arizona
|
23
|
52
|
47
|
49
|
49
|
-3
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
57
|
42
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
California
|
28
|
35
|
63
|
37
|
58
|
+2
|
|
Colorado
|
19
|
52
|
46
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Connecticut
|
48
|
53
|
47
|
50
|
46
|
-3
|
|
Delaware
|
31
|
53
|
47
|
39
|
61
|
-14
|
|
Florida
|
28
|
57
|
42
|
49
|
50
|
-8
|
|
Georgia
|
10
|
69
|
31
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Hawaii
|
30
|
49
|
51
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Idaho
|
13
|
60
|
40
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Illinois
|
36
|
44
|
56
|
43
|
57
|
-1
|
|
Indiana
|
18
|
56
|
43
|
50
|
50
|
-6
|
|
Iowa
|
23
|
46
|
53
|
41
|
50
|
-5
|
|
Kansas
|
22
|
61
|
39
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Kentucky
|
21
|
57
|
43
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Louisiana
|
38
|
68
|
31
|
70
|
27
|
+2
|
|
Maine
|
26
|
40
|
58
|
37
|
61
|
-3
|
|
Maryland
|
24
|
57
|
41
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Massachusetts
|
44
|
49
|
51
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Michigan
|
29
|
49
|
50
|
46
|
51
|
-3
|
|
Minnesota
|
28
|
49
|
50
|
47
|
53
|
-2
|
|
Mississippi
|
10
|
80
|
19
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Missouri
|
22
|
50
|
49
|
55
|
45
|
+5
|
|
Montana
|
24
|
56
|
43
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Nebraska
|
22
|
67
|
32
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Nevada
|
25
|
47
|
52
|
42
|
57
|
-5
|
|
New Hampshire
|
38
|
52
|
47
|
50
|
50
|
-2
|
|
New Jersey
|
44
|
58
|
41
|
55
|
45
|
-3
|
|
New Mexico
|
32
|
38
|
61
|
29
|
69
|
-9
|
|
New York
|
42
|
51
|
48
|
41
|
59
|
-10
|
|
North Carolina
|
9
|
60
|
40
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
North Dakota
|
25
|
62
|
36
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Ohio
|
26
|
55
|
44
|
52
|
47
|
-3
|
|
Oklahoma
|
9
|
66
|
34
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Oregon
|
11
|
42
|
58
|
37
|
63
|
-5
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
35
|
49
|
51
|
52
|
48
|
+3
|
|
Rhode Island
|
57
|
40
|
59
|
38
|
60
|
-2
|
|
South Carolina
|
10
|
62
|
37
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
South Dakota
|
25
|
63
|
36
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Tennessee
|
9
|
52
|
47
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Texas
|
21
|
51
|
49
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Utah
|
5
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Vermont
|
31
|
48
|
52
|
37
|
63
|
-11
|
|
Virginia
|
15
|
63
|
36
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Washington
|
16
|
37
|
62
|
35
|
63
|
-2
|
|
West Virginia
|
10
|
53
|
46
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
|
Wisconsin
|
32
|
48
|
52
|
47
|
53
|
-1
|
|
Wyoming
|
19
|
54
|
45
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
—
|
As the chart shows, this year many states did not track religious affiliation among voters, probably for financial reasons. But the trends within the data we have are quite clear. In 2004, President Bush received 52 percent of the generic Catholic vote; 61 percent of church-going Catholics; 41 percent of Hispanics. Senator McCain’s numbers were down across the board. He received 45 percent of the generic Catholic vote; 52 percent of church attendees; and 32 percent of the Hispanic vote.
It also appears that in the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana, many practicing Catholics simply stayed home. Why they did so is, for now, a matter of speculation, but it would not be unreasonable to guess that the state of the economy angered many who did not like Obama, but remained unmoved by McCain. And there are other telling numbers. In the city of Philadelphia, which is half African-American, voter turnout was down 10 percent from 2004. Most whites in Philadelphia are ethnic Italian-Americans, who for one reason or another chose to do something else than vote on Election Day.
This trend was also evident in the rest of Pennsylvania. Even though Catholics went against the national trend with 52 percent casting their vote for McCain, (a 4 percent improvement over Bush) in the ten counties with the largest Catholic populations, voter turnout declined in eight of them:
|
Pennsylvania Catholic Vote
|
|||||
|
County
|
Catholic (%)
|
Median
Income
|
2008 Presidential
Winner
|
2004 Presidential
Winner
|
Voter Turnout
2004 v. 2008
|
|
Elk
|
64.6%
|
$37,550
|
Obama 51%
|
Bush 54%
|
-7.1%
|
|
Cambria
|
54.7%
|
$30,179
|
Obama 56%
|
Bush 51%
|
-10.6%
|
|
Lackawanna
|
49.7%
|
$34,438
|
Obama 63%
|
Kerry 56%
|
+1.9%
|
|
Alleghany
|
49.3%
|
$38,329
|
Obama 57%
|
Kerry 57%
|
-1%
|
|
Delaware
|
48.9%
|
$50,092
|
Obama 60%
|
Kerry 57%
|
-1%
|
|
Bucks
|
43.7%
|
$59,727
|
Obama 54%
|
Kerry 51%
|
-2.5%
|
|
Schuylkill
|
42.2%
|
$32,699
|
McCain 54%
|
Bush 55%
|
-4.6%
|
|
Erie
|
36.7%
|
$36,627
|
Obama 59%
|
Kerry 54%
|
-1.6%
|
|
Northampton
|
35.8%
|
$45,234
|
Obama 55%
|
Kerry 50%
|
+5.6%
|
|
Westmoreland
|
35.5%
|
$37,106
|
McCain 58%
|
Bush 56%
|
-6.7%
|
Careful breakouts of the numbers make clear that large percentages of GOP-voting Catholics in several of the poorest Pennsylvania counties were AWOL. These GOP losses among Catholics must surely be characterized as self-inflicted. The McCain campaign admittedly failed to paint a vivid and appealing social and economic vision for Americans. But it still might have done better among Catholics if its Catholic outreach program hadn’t been caught up in internal strife and run by people more interested in their own futures than the success of the candidate.
