After the 2012 election, it became apparent that the rise of the “none/other” vote — those in the electorate without a religious affiliation or identifying as something other than Christian — was becoming as important for Democrats electorally as the Catholic vote was for John F. Kennedy and Democrats in 1960. . . .

In 2016, the potential electoral strength of [‘nones’] has grown even stronger, giving the Democrats a built-in structural advantage even before anyone knows who will win the nominations. The religious makeup of the electorate matters as there is no division between religion and campaign politics in the United States in the same way that there is a division between church and state. Candidates for the presidency can choose to include as much religion as they want in their campaigns. Given the evolving religious makeup of the electorate, we are likely to hear a lot about religion from candidates from one party and perhaps very little — other than the standard “God bless America” — from candidates on the other side.

. . . Catholics, generally, are politically the most split religious demographic. Over the last seven national elections (from 2002-2014), Catholics on average have voted for Democratic candidates for president or for the House of Representatives 50 percent of the time. Compare that to other religious groups, which have a much more prominent lean. In the same elections, according to exit poll data, Protestant Christians chose Democratic candidates 41 percent of the time. All other demographics by religious affiliation leaned strongly Democrat, including Jewish voters (73 percent), those of other faith traditions (71 percent) and those with no religious affiliation (70 percent).

If recent trends continue in 2016, Democrats can very likely expect at least 70 percent of the non-Christian vote. The Democratic nominee is also likely to only receive about 40 percent of the vote of Protestants and other non-Catholic Christians. As usual, this will likely leave the vote of Catholics to be pivotal — the swing vote that could go as a majority with either the Democrat or Republican nominee and tip the scales to either party.