In my 2004 book The American Catholic Voter: 200 Years of Political Impact [1], I pointed out that, historically, Catholics have been a pivotal swing vote determining the outcome of numerous national, state, and local elections.
In the 21st-century, however, Catholic demographics have significantly changed. Catholics are no longer a monolithic bloc that casts votes based on the social teachings of the Church. Over 90 percent of Catholic “Greatest Generation” Reagan Democrats have gone on to their heavenly reward and many of their children and grandchildren are no longer practicing Catholics.
As a result, generic exit polls, which include large subsets of non-practicing Hispanic and white Catholics, do not properly reflect the views of Church-going Catholics or measure the impact they have in presidential elections.
Generic Catholic Vote 1972 – 2016
1972 Nixon 52%
1976 Carter 575
1980 Reagan 47%*
1984 Reagan 61%
1988 Bush 51%
1992 Clinton 44%*
1996 Clinton 54%
2000 Gore 51%
2004 Bush 52%
2008 Obama 55%
2012 Obama 52%
2016 Trump 52%
*Plurality Victory
Although post-election surveys indicate that Donald Trump carried the generic Catholic vote 52 to 48 percent, the real story this year is about Catholics in the economically depressed Rustbelt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In those states, aging churchgoing Catholics are disproportionately represented, because their children and grandchildren have moved to more economically prosperous regions.
I have argued for years that if Rustbelt states are closely contested, the one or two percent difference that practicing Catholics can make would determine a presidential election. And that’s exactly what happened on November 8.
To be elected president, Donald Trump had to carry at least two Rustbelt states. Democrats scoffed at such an outcome, because Ohio had voted Democrat in every election since 2004, Pennsylvania since 1988, Michigan since 1988, and Wisconsin since 1984.
In fact, as the New York Times revealed this week, the Clinton campaign was so confident it would carry Midwestern states, it “ceded the white working-class voters who backed [Bill] Clinton in 1992.” Bill Clinton recommended that Hillary accept an invitation to give the prestigious St. Patrick’s Day speech at Notre Dame University, but the “campaign refused, explaining. . .that white Catholics were not the audience she needed to spend time reaching out to.”
Ceding the white working-class Catholic vote and then calling them irredeemable deplorables were fatal mistakes that cost Mrs. Clinton the election.
Here are the data that prove it:
Ohio Top 15 Catholic Counties
Catholic
% |
Gore
2000 % |
Kerry
2004 % |
Obama
2008 % |
Obama
2012 % |
Clinton
2016 % |
|
Putnam | 63 | 23 | 23 | 33 | 23 | 15 |
Mercer | 61 | 28 | 24 | 27 | 22 | 16 |
Logan | 56 | 32 | 32 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
Mahoning | 39 | 61 | 63 | 62 | 63 | 49 |
Seneca | 38 | 39 | 41 | 48 | 44 | 31 |
Lake | 36 | 31 | 49 | 49 | 48 | 40 |
Cuyahoga | 35 | 62 | 67 | 69 | 69 | 65 |
Erie | 28 | 41 | 53 | 56 | 55 | 43 |
Geauga | 28 | 24 | 39 | 41 | 38 | 35 |
Shelby | 28 | 33 | 29 | 31 | 26 | 18 |
Hamilton | 27 | 35 | 47 | 53 | 52 | 52 |
Lorain | 26 | 53 | 56 | 58 | 56 | 47 |
Auglaize | 26 | 21 | 26 | 29 | 25 | 17 |
Lucas | 25 | 58 | 60 | 65 | 64 | 56 |
Huron | 25 | 29 | 41 | 47 | 44 | 29 |
In the twenty-first century, Ohio has been a key swing state – and Catholics have made the difference. In 2000, George W. Bush carried Ohio with 50 percent and a plurality of 166,000 out of a total vote of 4.7 million. He received 50 percent of the generic Catholic vote versus 47 percent for Gore.
Four years later, Bush beat John Kerry, a nominal Catholic, 50.8 to 48.7 percent. His plurality was 118,000 votes. Ohio Catholics saved the state for Bush, 55 – 44 percent in his favor.
When the Great Recession hit in 2007, Ohio’s economy was seriously hurt. In November 2008 unemployment was 7.2 percent, the highest in sixteen years. Out of a total of 5,698,260 votes cast, Obama narrowly won with 2,933,388 to McCain’s 2,674,491.
In 2008 and 2012, while the generic Catholic vote did break for McCain (52 percent) and Romney (55 percent), Obama did well in the top fifteen Catholic counties, carrying six of them. Obama even carried very Republican and Catholic Hamilton County (the Cincinnati area), the turf of former Republican House Speaker John Boehner. The last Democrat to carry Hamilton County was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
How does one explain Obama losing the Catholic vote statewide and still doing well in Catholic counties? Many working class Catholics who didn’t like McCain and Romney and couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Obama stayed home in 2008 and 2012. While Ohio’s voter registration was up, the turnout in the top Catholic counties in both elections was basically flat versus 2004. Even in the Democratic stronghold, Cuyahoga (Cleveland), the total was actually down 8,000 votes.
The results in 2016 were very different. Trump carried Ohio with 52 percent, precisely because working class Catholics came out in force. Clinton beat Trump in only three of the top fifteen Catholic counties, and her percentage of the vote in the other twelve counties was significantly lower than Obama’s.
In Mahoning County, which includes Youngstown and has had deep blue-collar Democratic roots, Clinton received 49 percent, beating Trump by only 3,500 votes. Four years earlier, Obama took 63 percent and his margin of victory was 35,000.
Pennsylvania Top 20 Catholic Counties
County | Catholic
% |
Gore
2000 % |
Kerry
2004 % |
Obama
2008 % |
Obama
2012 % |
Clinton
2016 % |
Elk | 65 | 42 | 45 | 51 | 41 | 26 |
Cambria | 55 | 50 | 51 | 49 | 40 | 29 |
Allegheny | 50 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 56 |
Lackawanna | 50 | 60 | 56 | 63 | 63 | 50 |
Delaware | 49 | 54 | 57 | 60 | 60 | 59 |
Bucks | 44 | 50 | 51 | 54 | 50 | 48 |
Luzerne | 42 | 52 | 51 | 54 | 52 | 39 |
Schuylkill | 42 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 42 | 27 |
Erie | 37 | 53 | 54 | 59 | 57 | 47 |
Northampton | 36 | 51 | 50 | 55 | 52 | 46 |
Westmoreland | 36 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 32 |
Lawrence | 35 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 35 |
Montgomery | 35 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 57 | 59 |
Washington | 35 | 53 | 50 | 47 | 43 | 35 |
Carbon | 34 | 50 | 51 | 50 | 45 | 31 |
Wayne | 33 | 36 | 37 | 43 | 39 | 29 |
Chester | 32 | 44 | 47 | 54 | 49 | 53 |
Philadelphia | 32 | 80 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 82 |
Beaver | 30 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 45 | 38 |
Butler | 30 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 39 | 29 |
In every presidential election campaign, Pennsylvania has been difficult to call because of its diverse voters. There are three demographics, each with a different worldview. There are the very liberal cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and their surrounding suburban counties. Next is central Pennsylvania’s rural NRA country whose populace is leery of the Democratic Party’s promise of government largesse. Finally, there’s the economically depressed western portion of the state, predominantly older, socially conservative, and Catholic.
That breakdown has caused Republicans to make a play for Pennsylvania in recent presidential elections. But between 1992 and 2012, they always fell short.
George W. Bush received 46 percent in 2000 and 48 percent in 2004. McCain fell short by 10 percentage points and Romney by 4 percent.
This year was different. Catholics came out in the old coal and steel towns in western Pennsylvania. And it appears that a sub-set of country-club Catholics in the affluent suburbs outside of Philadelphia overstated their support for Clinton to pollsters. She carried Chester and Montgomery counties, but her vote totals were down versus Obama in 2012; and she lost Bucks County, which Gore, Kerry, and Obama easily carried.
In 2012, Obama won twelve of the top twenty Catholic counties; Clinton carried just six, and her totals in the Catholic counties she lost were well below Obama’s.
In Philadelphia, a Democratic bastion, Clinton’s numbers were down compared to Obama’s due to a strong turnout in South Philly, the old Italian neighborhood, and a decline in African-American turnout. Interestingly, Clinton carried Delaware County – the wealthiest Catholic county, while Trump carried the top two poorest Catholic counties – Cambria and Elk.
Pennsylvania Catholics came out in force for the first time in decades and gave Trump his 1 percent margin of victory.
Michigan Top 20 Catholic Counties
Catholic
% |
Gore
2000 % |
Kerry
2004 % |
Obama
2008 % |
Obama
2012 % |
Clinton
2016 % |
|
Delta | 53 | 46 | 49 | 52 | 46 | 35 |
Dickinson | 53 | 43 | 42 | 45 | 39 | 30 |
Menominee | 44 | 44 | 47 | 54 | 48 | 33 |
Alpena | 44 | 50 | 49 | 51 | 47 | 33 |
Huron | 41 | 43 | 44 | 48 | 42 | 29 |
Presque | 38 | 46 | 46 | 50 | 45 | 33 |
Bay | 36 | 55 | 54 | 57 | 52 | 41 |
Iron | 36 | 49 | 49 | 50 | 45 | 34 |
Alger | 32 | 35 | 50 | 53 | 48 | 37 |
Gogebic | 32 | 49 | 52 | 58 | 53 | 40 |
Ostego | 31 | 38 | 38 | 45 | 39 | 28 |
Macomb | 31 | 50 | 49 | 53 | 51 | 42 |
Marquette | 30 | 53 | 54 | 59 | 56 | 49 |
Baraga | 28 | 41 | 45 | 47 | 45 | 33 |
Houghton | 27 | 40 | 42 | 47 | 44 | 38 |
Monroe | 27 | 51 | 49 | 51 | 50 | 36 |
Manistee | 26 | 49 | 49 | 56 | 52 | 39 |
Clinton | 25 | 42 | 41 | 50 | 46 | 41 |
Oakland | 25 | 49 | 50 | 56 | 53 | 52 |
St. Clair | 25 | 48 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 31 |
Michigan’s economy has been in serious decline in recent decades. In the automobile industry, costly union contracts and management’s failure to implement corporate strategies to fend off foreign competition have resulted in major downsizing.
Nevertheless, despite Michigan being the hardest-hit state economically during the Great Recession, blue-collar Catholics, many of whom are churchgoers, continued to vote along cultural lines.
One Michigan area that is a microcosm of the Catholic vote is Macomb County. As the following chart shows, this heavily Catholic, blue-collar Detroit suburb of 700,000 deserted their party and became “Reagan Democrats.”
Macomb County, Michigan
Vote for President
1980-2016
Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
1980 | 51.9% | 40.4% | 7.7% |
1984 | 66.2% | 33.3% | – |
1988 | 60.3% | 38.8% | – |
1992 | 42.3% | 37.4% | 19.5% |
1996 | 39.4% | 49.5% | 9.5% |
2000 | 47.5% | 50.0% | – |
2004 | 50.8% | 49.2% | – |
2008 | 45.6% | 54.4% | – |
2012 | 53% | 47% | – |
2016 | 54% | 42% | – |
Democrats have carried the state three times since 1988, in 2004 John Kerry received over 50 percent of the vote in only three of the top twenty Catholic counties. Obama exceeded 50 percent in 9 of those counties in 2008 and 6 of them in 2012. This year, Hillary Clinton exceeded 50 percent in only one: Oakland, which is a traditional Democratic enclave and 56 percent African-American.
Trump easily carried Macomb County (56 percent). His vote total was 224,589 versus Romney’s 208,016 in 2012. Clinton’s vote, 176,238, was down about 10 percent from Obama’s previous total of 191,913.
The increase of white blue-collar Catholic voters (and a decrease in African-American turnout) caused Mrs. Clinton to lose Michigan by 11,000 votes out of 4.5 million cast.
Wisconsin Top 31 Catholic Counties
Catholic
% |
Gore
2000 % |
Kerry
2004 % |
Obama
2008 % |
Obama
2012 % |
Clinton
2016 % |
|
Menominee | 66 | 77 | 62 | 67 | 86 | 78 |
Kewaunee | 57 | 46 | 46 | 55 | 46 | 33 |
Grant | 56 | 49 | 51 | 61 | 56 | 42 |
Manitowoc | 52 | 45 | 47 | 53 | 48 | 36 |
Brown | 52 | 46 | 45 | 54 | 49 | 42 |
Outagamie | 52 | 43 | 45 | 55 | 48 | 40 |
Portage | 48 | 53 | 56 | 63 | 56 | 49 |
Lafayette | 44 | 51 | 52 | 60 | 57 | 43 |
Taylor | 43 | 36 | 40 | 48 | 40 | 25 |
Langlade | 41 | 43 | 43 | 50 | 43 | 32 |
Wood | 40 | 45 | 47 | 56 | 48 | 38 |
Marinette | 39 | 44 | 46 | 53 | 48 | 31 |
Ozaukee | 39 | 32 | 33 | 39 | 34 | 38 |
Green Lake | 38 | 36 | 35 | 42 | 39 | 29 |
Ashland | 37 | 55 | 63 | 68 | 64 | 52 |
Door | 37 | 43 | 48 | 58 | 53 | 46 |
Marathon | 37 | 45 | 47 | 53 | 46 | 38 |
Washington | 37 | 29 | 29 | 35 | 29 | 27 |
Waukesha | 37 | 32 | 32 | 37 | 44 | 33 |
Fond du Lac | 36 | 39 | 36 | 45 | 42 | 34 |
Oneida | 36 | 44 | 47 | 54 | 48 | 39 |
Racine | 35 | 47 | 47 | 53 | 51 | 45 |
Calumet | 34 | 41 | 41 | 50 | 44 | 36 |
Crawford | 34 | 54 | 55 | 63 | 59 | 45 |
Pepin | 34 | 51 | 54 | 56 | 51 | 36 |
Iowa | 33 | 55 | 57 | 67 | 65 | 55 |
Clark | 32 | 42 | 46 | 53 | 45 | 31 |
Kenosha | 30 | 51 | 52 | 58 | 56 | 47 |
LaCrosse | 30 | 51 | 53 | 61 | 58 | 51 |
Dane | 28 | 61 | 66 | 73 | 71 | 71 |
Milwaukee | 28 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 68 | 66 |
For over a century, the largest bloc of Wisconsin voters has been Catholic. Today they are about 33 percent of the electorate. Lutherans come in second at 30 percent.
Historically, Catholic voters in Wisconsin have walked a political tightrope. They have been isolationists in foreign policy, staunchly anti-Communist, slightly to the right on social and fiscal issues, and slightly to the left on welfare.
This mixture of views may explain why Catholic, pro-life, fiscal conservative Paul Ryan won his congressional district in 2008 with 64 percent and in 2012 (while simultaneously running for vice president) received 55 percent of the vote while Obama received 51 percent in 2008 and 47 percent in 2012.
In 2008, Catholics came out and voted for Obama. He carried 24 of the top 31 Catholic Counties. Four years later that number dropped to fourteen. This year, Clinton received over 50 percent of the vote in only five of those counties.
And as Catholics came out in force for Trump, African-Americans were less enthusiastic about Clinton, and many stayed home. But white blue-collar voters, who had stayed home four years earlier, came out in significant numbers this time.
Indeed, that Wisconsin went for Trump with 50.4 percent of the vote was the biggest surprise of election night 2016. Thanks to the outpouring of working class Catholics, Republicans put Wisconsin in their column for the first time since in thirty-two years.
* * * * *
In 2016, the pundits, the politicians, the polls, the media, and Clinton’s highly paid technology data geeks got many things wrong and lost, not least thanks to the turnout of Rustbelt Catholics.