After Kamala Harris declined the invitation to be on the dais of the famous Al Smith Dinner hosted by the Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, columnist Joe Concha opined that Harris “clearly doesn’t care about snubbing [Catholic voters].”
Harris is the first Democratic presidential nominee to skip the event since Walter Mondale in 1984. That decision sends a strong message that a charity event honoring New York Democratic governor Alfred E. Smith (1873-1944), the first Catholic nominated for the office of president, isn’t an important forum for radical leftists who have taken over the party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy.
This happenstance raises an important question. Does the Catholic vote matter anymore? Vice President Harris seems to think it does not.
Throughout most of the 20th century, a united Catholic vote mattered to Democrats. In 1960, for example, if Catholics had not come out in force for JFK in Chicago, Newark, Philadelphia, Detroit, and St. Louis, he would have lost the tightly contested states of Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri – and Richard Nixon would have won.
In the late 1960s, the Catholic political demographic began to change. The shift was due to an increasing number of Democrat officials who were critics rather than champions of the moral principles of Catholic voters and their Church. Hence, the Catholic vote was key to the election of Nixon in 1972, and to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.
In the 21st century, however, the influence of the children and grandchildren of Catholic immigrants from Europe and Ireland has declined. Members of the “Greatest Generation” are fast diminishing. In August 1945 when the war ended, there were 16 million Americans in uniform: 35 percent were Catholics. Today, there are fewer than 50,000 WWII Veterans.
`My father, John Marlin, was on the young side of those veterans. He joined the Marines at 17 in 1944, received the Purple Heart, became an NYPD cop, and was a lifelong Republican. He died on September 25 at the age of 97.
Korean War veterans are dying at the rate of 1,000 a day, and Vietnam GIs are dying at the rate of 500 a day.
The passing of these “meat-and-potato” Catholics, as Cardinal Dolan has called them, has had a significant impact on the results of elections and public opinion polling.
So, what’s to make of the Catholic vote in 2024?
An EWTN/Real Clear Politics poll, released in August, indicated that 50 percent of Catholics plan to vote for Harris while 43 percent support Trump. Female Catholics support Harris over Trump 56 percent to 37 percent. The Catholic male vote breaks for Trump 49 percent to 43 percent.
Forty-nine percent of Hispanics prefer Harris with 30 percent leaning toward Trump.
The EWTN poll tracked with other national surveys, in part because it was generic. In other words, it did not distinguish between baptized Catholics and practicing Catholics.
Take the case of President Joe Biden, who boasts of being a rosary-carrying Catholic. The Archbishop of Washington D.C., Cardinal Wilton Cardinal Gregory, remarked on Easter Sunday that Biden is a “Cafeteria Catholic.” He meant that Biden adheres to the Catholic teachings he likes, and rejects those he finds personally or politically inconvenient. “Cafeteria Catholic” Biden supports abortion – even at the moment of birth – and same-sex marriage.
The distinction between Church-going Catholic voters and non-practicing ones matters. Here are some examples why.
In 2000, George W. Bush won with the support of 57 percent of practicing Catholics, but only 49 percent of the generic Catholic vote. In the tightly contested 2004 race, Bush, running against a baptized Catholic, John Kerry, received 52 percent of the generic Catholic vote. As for traditionalist Catholics, a Pew poll revealed he received a record-breaking 76 percent of their votes.
In those two elections, which were virtually tied, practicing Catholics provided the margins of victory.
And that can happen again this year.
A September survey by the Pew Research Center got into greater detail about Catholics in this election year. The generic Catholic vote is 52 percent Trump, 47 percent Harris. White Catholics break 61 percent Trump, 38 percent Harris. Hispanic Catholic are 34 percent Trump, 65 percent Harris.
The Church-going white Catholic vote favors Trump (65 percent) over Harris (34 percent). Unfortunately, Pew didn’t survey practicing Hispanic Catholics.
The long and the short of it is that even though the number of practicing Catholics is declining, they still matter in 2024 – although it may be the “Last Hurrah.”
In a closely contested presidential race every vote counts, particularly in the Rust Belt swing States of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In highly depressed economic counties in states that have lost blue-collar manufacturing jobs to Mexico and China, there remain large numbers of practicing Catholics, albeit elderly ones. The average age of the population in many of those counties is 50; nationally it’s 38.
Those Catholics put Trump over the top in 2016 and came close to doing so again in 2020.
As for Hispanics, those who adhere to Church teaching may push Trump over the finish line in the toss-up states of Arizona and Nevada.
The votes of Pennsylvania’s Church-going Catholics in Rust Belt counties, and in suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, may determine who will be living in the White House in January.
The race for US senator in PA might affect the outcome of the presidential race. The incumbent “Cafeteria Catholic” Bob Casey Jr. is fighting for his political life. While he has abandoned Catholic doctrines on abortion and other issues, he exploits the memory of his deceased father, Governor Robert Casey Sr., who is revered by the pro-life movement.
In this year’s closely contested presidential race, if the 9 percent of the population that are Church-going Catholics come out in droves in the toss-up states, they could take credit for sending the radical leftist Kamala Harris packing back to her natural political habitat: California.
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