Perceived fortunes of papal candidates are a bit like the stock market: they also often wax and wane on the basis of whatever’s happening right now. Should a particular cardinal turn in a bravura performance navigating a controversy, his odds will be seen to rise; if another cardinal is associated with a gaffe or scandal, his chances will be regarded as having dimmed. The conflict over Fiducia supplicans may tell us something about the status of Cardinals Victor Manuel Fernández and Fridolin Ambongo.